Project Scheduling & Control

Techniques
 Intro
 Perencanaan proyek adalah usaha untuk membuat penentuan
mengenai apa yang harus dicapai dalam proyek, kapan dan
bagaimana proyek tersebut dilaksanakan.
 Penjadwalan proyek merupakan bagian yang paling penting dari
sebuah perencanaan proyek, yaitu untuk menentukan kapan sebuah
proyek dilaksanakan berdasarkan urutan tertentu dari awal sampai
akhir proyek.
 Jadi penjadwalan proyek meliputi kegiatan menetapkan jangka waktu
kegiatan proyek yang harus diselesaikan dan waktu yang dibutuhkan
oleh setiap aktivitas dalam proyek.
 Metode penjadwalan proyek yang lazim digunakan adalah Gantt
Chart, PERT (Project Evaluation and Review Technique) dan CPM
(Critical Path Method).

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 3 Phase Manajemen Proyek
Perencanaan:
Perencanaan melibatkan penetapan tujuan proyek. Mengidentifikasi
berbagai kegiatan yang akan dilakukan dan menentukan kebutuhan sumber
daya seperti manusia, material, mesin, dan lain-lain.

Penjadualan:
Berdasarkan perkiraan waktu mulai dan selesai untuk setiap kegiatan,
dengan menerapkan teknis perhitungan waktu maju dan mundur,
mengidentifikasi jalur kritis, bersama dengan waktu slack dan float pada
jalur non-kritis

Pengendalian:
Pengendalian mengacu pada kegiatan menganalisis dan mengevaluasi
kemajuan aktual terhadap rencana. Realokasi sumber daya, kecelakaan dan
review proyek dengan laporan berkala yang dilakukan.

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 Penjadualan Proyek
Penjadwalan Proyek merupakan kegiatan yang dilakukan oleh
seorang Manajer Proyek dalam:

 Membagi projek kedalam bentuk tugas dan estimasi waktu

serta sumber daya yang dibutuhkan untuk menyelesaikan tugas
tersebut.
 Pengorganisasian tugas yang bersamaan untuk membuat
jadwal yang optimum.
 Meminimumkan ketergantungan tugas untuk menghindari
adanya jeda waktu (delay) yg ditimbulkan oleh suatu tugas yang
pengerjaannya harus menunggu tugas lainnya selesai.
 Penjadualan Proyek

Penjadwalan proyek dibutuhkan untuk membantu seorang

manajer proyek sehingga dapat:

 Menunjukkan hubungan tiap-tiap kegiatan terhadap

keseluruhan proyek.
 Mengidentifikasikan hubungan yang harus didahulukan di
antara kegiatan.
 Menunjukkan perkiraan biaya dan waktu yang realistis untuk
tiap kegiatan .
 Membantu penggunaan tenaga kerja, uang dan sumber daya
lainnya dengan cara mencermati hal-hal kritis pada proyek.
 Penjadualan Proyek
Prinsip-prinsip dalam Penjadwalan Proyek diantaranya adalah sebagai berikut:

 Pembagian
Proyek harus dibagi-bagi ke dalam sejumlah tugas & aktifitas yang dapat
dikendalikan untuk dapat menyelesaikan semua permasalahan yang ada
(melakukan dekomposisi masalah).
 Saling Ketergantungan
Adanya saling ketergantungan dari setiap tugas & aktifitas yang dibagi harus
ditentukan dari awal penjadwalan proyek .
 Alokasi Waktu
Setiap tugas yang akan dijadwalkan harus dialokasikan kedalam sejumlah
satuan kerja (mis. Person-day dll).
 Validasi Kerja
Setiap proyek memiliki staff tertentu, dimana pada saat pembagian tugas,
harus dipastikan bahwa tidak akan kelebihan alokasi waktu atau jumlah SDM
pada saat tertentu.
 Penjadualan Proyek
Masalah-masalah yang sering dihadapi dalam Penjadualan Proyek diantaranya
adalah sebagai berikut:

 Produktifitas tidak berbanding lurus dengan jumlah orang yang mengerjakan

tugas.
 Seringkali hal tersebut diatasi dengan solusi penambahan personal pada
akhir proyek, namun solusi ini dikhawatirkan dapat menyebabkan adanya
overhead komunikasi antar personal dalam proyek karena terlalu banyak
personal yang terlibat dalam proyek.
 Segala sesuatu yang tidak diharapkan bahkan hal yang paling buruk mungkin
akan terjadi, sehingga membutuhkan suatu perencanaan yang matang
dalam penjadwalan proyek, apabila perlu dibuat perencanaan cadangan
dalam proyek.
Project Scheduling and Control Techniques
Gantt Chart
Critical Path Method (CPM)
Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT)

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GANTT CHART
 Pada tahun 1917, Henry Gantt mengembangkan sebuah
metode untuk membantu penjadwalan job shops. Metode
ini akhirnya terkenal dan dipakai sampai sekarang dengan
nama Gantt Chart.
 Gantt Chart adalah suatu metode yang bernilai khususnya
untuk proyek-proyek dengan jumlah anggota tim yang
sedikit.
 Gantt Chart merupakan suatu grafik dimana ditampilkan
kotak-kotak yang mewakili setiap tugas dan panjang
masing-masing setiap kotak menunjukkan waktu
pengerjaan tugas-tugas tersebut dalam format pewaktuan
tertentu seperti jam, hari, tanggal, minggu, bulan atau
tahun .
Gantt Chart

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 GANTT CHART

Beberapa keuntungan dalam menggunakan Gantt Chart:

 Sederhana, mudah dibuat dan dipahami, sehingga sangat bermanfaat
sebagai alat komunikasi dalam penyelenggaraan proyek.
 Dapat menggambarkan jadwal suatu kegiatan dan kenyataan kemajuan
sesungguhnya pada saat pelaporan.

Beberapa kerugian dalam menggunakan Gantt Chart:

 Tidak menunjukkan secara spesifik hubungan ketergantungan antara satu
kegiatan dan kegiatan yang lain, sehingga sulit untuk mengetahui dampak
yang diakibatkan oleh keterlambatan satu kegiatan terhadap jadwal
keseluruhan proyek.
 Sulit mengadakan penyesuaian atau perbaikan/pembaharuan bila
diperlukan, karena pada umumnya ini berarti membuat bagan balok baru.
CPM (Critical Path Method)
 Sebuah metode penjadwalan yang dikembangkan oleh Du Pont dan
Remington Rand, dapat digunakan untuk aktifitas dimana durasinya sudah
diketahui.
 CPM adalah singkatan dari Critical Path Method atau Metode Jalur Kritis.
Jalur kritis adalah jalur terlama antara titik dimulai sampai dengan titik
penyelesaian proyek.
Langkah 1 Langkah 2
D D
A 4 A 4
3
3 G 3 G
C E C 8 E
2 2
5 2 5 2
B B
F 2 F
2 2
7 7

Langkah 3 D Langkah 4 D
12
A 4 A 4
3 3
3 G 3 G
C 8 E 10 C 8 E
2 2
5 2 5 2
17
B B
F 2 F
2 2
7 7
15 15
 CPM (Critical Path Method)
Beberapa teknik yang digunakan dalam CPM, yaitu :
• Buat daftar semua aktifitas yang dibutuhkan untuk menyelesaikan
proyek;
• Buat daftar waktu yang diperlukan oleh masing-masing aktifitas
tersebut untuk menyelesaikan tugasnya;
• Buat daftar ketergantungan antara aktifitas tersebut dalam proyek.

13
DIAGRAM PERT
 Pada tahun 1958, Booz Allen Hamilton menemukan sebuah metode penjadwalan
yang diberi nama diagram PERT, merupakan singkatan dari Program Evaluation and
Review Technique.
 Diagram PERT dapat digunakan untuk mempermudah proses perencanaan dan
penjadwalan untuk proyek dengan kapasitas besar dan kompleks karena mampu
mengatasi ketidakpastian dalam proyek tanpa perlu tahu durasi dari setiap aktifitas.
 Pada diagram PERT, suatu aktifitas dalam proyek diwakili dengan jaringan simpul dan
tanda panah yang kemudian dievaluasi untuk menentukan kegiatan-kegiatan
terpenting, meningkatkan jadwal yang diperlukan dan merevisi kemajuan-kemajuan
saat proyek telah dijalankan. Jadi pada metode PERT ini dilakukan dengan cara
pembentukan diagram anak panah.
 PERT (Program Evaluation and Review Technique) adalah teknik untuk membagi
suatu proyek atau kegiatan induk menjadi kegiatan-kegiatan individual yang lebih
kecil dan menyusunnya dalam suatu jaringan kerja atau jalur kerja yang logis
sehingga jangka waktu dan biaya pengerjaan program dapat dikurangi serendah
mungkin. Dalam PERT, peristiwa (event) biasanya dilukiskan dalam bentuk lingkaran,
dan aktifitas atau kegiatan dilukiskan dalam bentuk tanda panah yang
menghubungkan dua buah lingkaran.
DIAGRAM PERT

Diagram PERT dianggap lebih baik apabila dibandingkan dengan Gantt Chart, yaitu
diantaranya karena hal-hal sebagai berikut :

 Mudah mengidentifikasi tingkat prioritas dalam sebuah proyek.

 Mudah mengetahui ketergantungan (dependency) antara kegiatan (activity) yang
satu dengan yang lain dalam sebuah proyek.
 ANALISIS PERT

Merupakan penetapan lama prakiraan waktu paling mungkin untuk

menyelesaikan tugas (D) merupakan faktor dari:

 Optimistic Duration (OD) yaitu prakiraan waktu minimal yang diperlukan

untuk menyelesaikan sebuah tugas.
 Pessimistic Duration (PD) yaitu prakiraan waktu maksimal yang diperlukan
untuk menyelesaikan sebuah tugas.
 Expected Duration (ED) yaitu prakiraan waktu harapan yang diperlukan
untuk menyelesaikan sebuah tugas.

Rumusnya yaitu:
D= (1 x OD) + (4 x ED) + (1 x PD)
6
 Project Network
• Network analysis is the general name given to certain specific
techniques which can be used for the planning, management and
control of projects
• Use of nodes and arrows
Arrows  An arrow leads from tail to head directionally
– Indicate ACTIVITY, a time consuming effort that is required to perform a
part of the work.
Nodes  A node is represented by a circle
- Indicate EVENT, a point in time where one or more activities start and/or
finish.
• Activity
– A task or a certain amount of work required in the project
– Requires time to complete
– Represented by an arrow
• Dummy Activity
– Indicates only precedence relationships
– Does not require any time of effort
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 Project Network
• Event
– Signals the beginning or ending of an activity
– Designates a point in time
– Represented by a circle (node)
• Network
– Shows the sequential relationships among activities using nodes
and arrows

 Activity-on-node (AON)
nodes represent activities, and arrows show precedence
relationships
 Activity-on-arrow (AOA)
arrows represent activities and nodes are events for points in
time
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 CPM vs PERT
Terdapat beberapa perbedaan antara CPM dengan PERT, yaitu:
• CPM menggunakan satu jenis waktu untuk taksiran waktu kegiatan
sedangkan PERT menggunakan tiga jenis waktu, yaitu: prakiraan
waktu teroptimis, termungkin, dan terpesimis.
• CPM digunakan kala taksiran waktu pengerjaan setiap aktifitas
diketahui dengan jelas, sedangkan PERT digunakan saat taksiran
waktu aktifitas tidak dapat dipastikan seperti aktifitas tersebut belum
pernah dilakukan atau mempunyai variasi waktu yang besar.
• PERT berbasiskan statistik memberikan peluang hadirnya
ketidakpastian. Hal tersebut, tampak dalam misal untuk mengukur
probabilitas selesainya proyek jika kita inginkan proyek selesai pada
suatu waktu tertentu, sedangkan CPM menganggap proyek terdiri
dari peristiwa susul menyusul.
19
 CPM vs PERT

 Meskipun demikian, CPM dan PERT mempunyai tujuan yang sama

dimana analisis yang digunakan adalah sangat mirip yaitu dengan
menggunakan diagram anak panah.
 Dapat dikatakan CPM merupakan variasi dari PERT.
 Perbedaan pokok antara CPM dan PERT terletak pada penentuan
perkiraan waktunya, dimana PERT menggunakan rumus:
D = (1 x OD) + (4 x ED) + (1 x PD)
6

sedangkan CPM menggunakan perhitungan Jalur Kritis (Critical Path).

20
 Komponen jaringan CPM/PERT
PERT / CPM terdiri dari dua komponen utama
i. Kegiatan (Activities), dan
ii. Peristiwa (Events)
Activity: suatu aktivitas yang merupakan tindakan dan konsumsi
sumber daya (waktu, uang dan energi) yang diperlukan untuk
menyelesaikan sebagian dari proyek. Kegiatan diwakili oleh panah

Event: suatu peristiwa (atau node) akan selalu terjadi pada awal dan
akhir kegiatan. Peristiwa tidak memiliki sumber daya dan diwakili oleh
lingkaran.
Merge and Burst Events

One or more activities can start and end simultaneously at an event

Preceding and Succeeding Activities

Activities performed before given events are known as preceding activities,
and activities performed after a given event are known as succeeding
activities.

Activities A and B precede activities C and D respectively.

Dummy Activity

An imaginary activity which does not consume any resource and

time is called a dummy activity. Dummy activities are simply
used to represent a connection between events in order to
maintain a logic in the network. It is represented by a dotted line
in a network, see Figure 8.5.
 Concurrent Activities

3
Lay foundation Lay
Dummy
foundation
2 0
2 3
1
Order material 2 4
Order material

(a) Incorrect precedence (b) Correct precedence

relationship relationship

darla/smbs/vit 24
 ERRORS TO BE AVOIDED IN CONSTRUCTING A NETWORK
a. Two activities starting from a tail event
must not have a same end event. To ensure
this, it is absolutely necessary to introduce a
dummy activity

b. Looping error should not be formed in a

network, as it represents performance of
activities repeatedly in a cyclic manner

c. In a network, there should be only one

start event and one ending event

d. The direction of arrows should

flow from left to right avoiding
mixing of direction
 RULES IN CONSTRUCTING A NETWORK
1. No single activity can be represented more than once in a network.
The length of an arrow has no significance.

2. The event numbered 1 is the start event and an event with highest number is
the end event. Before an activity can be undertaken, all activities preceding
it must be completed. That is, the activities must follow a logical sequence
(or – interrelationship) between activities.

3. In assigning numbers to events, there should not be any duplication of event

numbers in a network.

4. Dummy activities must be used only if it is necessary to reduce the

complexity of a network.

5. A network should have only one start event and one end event.
Some conventions of network diagram are shown in Figure 8.10
(a), (b), (c), (d) below:
 Situations in network diagram
B
A A must finish before either B or C can start
C
A
C both A and B must finish before C can start
B
A C both A and C must finish before either of B
B or D can start
D

A B
A must finish before B can start
Dummy both A and C must finish before D can start
C darla/smbs/vit 28
D
 PROCEDURE FOR NUMBERING THE EVENTS
USING FULKERSON'S RULE

Step1: Number the start or initial event as 1.

Step2: From event 1, strike off all outgoing activities. This would have
made one or more events as initial events (event which do not have
incoming activities). Number that event as 2.

Step3: Repeat step 2 for event 2, event 3 and till the end event. The end
event must have the highest number

Example 1:
Draw a network for a house construction project. The sequence of
activities with their predecessors
The network diagram above, shows the procedure relationship
between the activities. Activity A (preparation of house plan),
has a start event 1 as well as an ending event 2. Activity B
(Construction of house) begins at event 2 and ends at event 3.
The activity B cannot start until activity A has been
completed. Activities C and D cannot begin until activity B has
been completed, but they can be performed simultaneously.
Similarly, activities E and F can start only after completion of
activities C and D respectively. Both activities E and F finish at
the end of event 6.
Example 2: Consider the project given in Table 8.2 and construct a
network diagram. Table 8.2: Sequence of Activities for Building
Construction Project
Solution:
The activities C and D have a common predecessor A. The
network representation shown in Figure 8.12 (a), (b) violates
the rule that no two activities can begin and end at the same
events. It appears as if activity B is a predecessor of activity C,
which is not the case. To construct the network in a logical
order, it is necessary to introduce a dummy activity as shown
in Figure 8.12.
Example 3:
Construct a network for a project whose activities and their
predecessor relationship are given in Table 8.3.

Solution: The network diagram for the given problem is

shown in Figure 8.14 with activities A, B and C starting
simultaneously.
 Example 4: Draw a network diagram
for a project given in Table 8.4.

Solution: An activity network diagram describing the

project is shown in Figure 8.15, below:
 CRITICAL PATH ANALYSIS

The critical path for any network is the longest path through the entire network.

Since all activities must be completed to complete the entire project, the length
of the critical path is also the shortest time allowable for completion of the
project.

Thus if the project is to be completed in that shortest time, all activities on the
critical path must be started as soon as possible.

These activities are called critical activities.

If the project has to be completed ahead of the schedule, then the time required
for at least one of the critical activity must be reduced.

Further, any delay in completing the critical activities will increase the project
duration.
The activity, which does not lie on the critical path, is called non-critical
activity.

These non-critical activities may have some slack time.

The slack is the amount of time by which the start of an activity may be
delayed without affecting the overall completion time of the project.

But a critical activity has no slack.

To reduce the overall project time, it would require more resources (at
extra cost) to reduce the time taken by the critical activities to complete.
 Scheduling of Activities: Earliest Time (TE) and Latest Time(TL)

Before the critical path in a network is determined, it is necessary to

find the earliest and latest time of each event to know the earliest
expected time (TE) at which the activities originating from the event
can be started and to know the latest allowable time (TL) at which
activities terminating at the event can be completed.

Forward Pass Computations (to calculate Earliest, Time TE)

Step 1: Begin from the start event and move towards the end event.

Step 2: Put TE = 0 for the start event.

Step 3: Go to the next event (i.e node 2) if there is an incoming activity for
event 2, add calculate TE of previous event (i.e event 1) and activity time.

Note: If there are more than one incoming activities, calculate TE for all
incoming activities and take the maximum value. This value is the TE for
event 2.
Step 4: Repeat the same procedure from step 3 till the end event.
 Backward Pass Computations (to calculate Latest Time TL)

Procedure :

Step 1: Begin from end event and move towards the start event. Assume
that the direction of arrows is reversed.

Step 2: Latest Time TL for the last event is the earliest time. TE of the last
event.

Step 3: Go to the next event, if there is an incoming activity, subtract the

value of TL of previous event from the activity duration time. The arrived
value is TL for that event. If there are more than one incoming activities,
take the minimum TE value.
Step 4: Repeat the same procedure from step 2 till the start event.
DETERMINATION OF FLOAT AND SLACK TIMES
As discussed earlier, the non – critical activities have some slack or float.
The float of an activity is the amount of time available by which it is
possible to delay its completion time without extending the overall
project completion time.
tij = duration of activity
TE = earliest expected time
TL = latest allowable time
ESij = earliest start time of the activity
EFij = earliest finish time of the activity
LSij = latest start time of the activity
LFij = latest finish time of the activity
Total Float TFij: The total float of an activity is the difference between the
latest start time and the earliest start time of that activity.
TFij = LS ij – ESij ....................(1)
or
TFij = (TL – TE) – tij …………..(ii)
Free Float FFij: The time by which the completion of an activity can be
delayed from its earliest finish time without affecting the earliest start time
of the succeeding activity is called free float.

FF ij = (Ej – Ei) – tij ....................(3)

FFij = Total float – Head event slack

Independent Float IFij: The amount of time by which the start of an activity
can be delayed without affecting the earliest start time of any immediately
following activities, assuming that the preceding activity has finished at its
latest finish time.

IF ij = (Ej – Li) – tij ....................(4)

IFij = Free float – Tail event slack Where tail event slack = Li – Ei

The negative value of independent float is considered to be zero.

Critical Path:
After determining the earliest and the latest scheduled times for
various activities, the minimum time required to complete the
project is calculated. In a network, among various paths, the
longest path which determines the total time duration of the
project is called the critical path. The following conditions must be
satisfied in locating the critical path of a network.
An activity is said to be critical only if both the conditions are satisfied.
1. TL – TE = 0
2. TLj – tij – TEj = 0
Example :
A project schedule has the following characteristics as shown in Table

i. Construct PERT network.

ii. Compute TE and TL for

each activity.
iii. Find the critical path.
(i) From the data given in the problem, the activity network is
constructed as shown in Figure given below
 (ii) To determine the critical path, compute the earliest time TE and latest
time TL for each of the activity of the project. The calculations of TE and TL
are as follows:,
To calculate TE for all activities
TE1 = 0
TE2 = TE1 + t1, 2 = 0 + 4 = 4
TE3 = TE1 + t1, 3 = 0 + 1 =1
TE4 = max (TE2 + t2, 4 and TE3 + t3, 4)
= max (4 + 1 and 1 + 1) = max (5, 2)
= 5 days
TE5 = TE3 + t3, 6 = 1 + 6 = 7
TE6 = TE5 + t5, 6 = 7 + 4 = 11
TE7 = TE5 + t5, 7 = 7 + 8 = 15
TE8 = max (TE6 + t6, 8 and TE7 + t7, 8)
= max (11 + 1 and 15 + 2) = max (12, 17)
= 17 days
TE9 = TE4 + t4, 9 = 5 + 5 = 10
TE10 = max (TE9 + t9, 10 and TE8 + t8, 10)
= max (10 + 7 and 17 + 5) = max (17, 22)
= 22 days
To calculate TL for all activities
TL10 = TE10 = 22
TL9 = TE10 – t9,10 = 22 – 7 = 15
TL8 = TE10 – t8, 10 = 22 – 5 = 17
TL7 = TE8 – t7, 8 = 17 – 2 = 15
TL6 = TE8 – t6, 8 = 17 – 1 = 16
TL5 = min (TE6 – t5, 6 and TE7 – t5, 7)
= min (16 – 4 and 15 –8) = min (12, 7)
= 7 days
TL4 = TL9 – t4, 9 = 15 – 5 =10
TL3 = min (TL4 – t3, 4 and TL5 – t3, 5 )
= min (10 – 1 and 7 – 6) = min (9, 1)
= 1 day
TL2 = TL4 – t2, 4 = 10 – 1 = 9
TL1 = Min (TL2 – t1, 2 and TL3 – t1, 3)
= Min (9 – 4 and 1 – 1) = 0
TE for all activities TL for all activities
TE1 = 0, TE2 = 4, TE3=1, TE4=5, TL10 = 22, TL9=15, TL8=17, TL7=15,
TE6=11, TE7=15, TE8=17, TL6= 16, TL5= 7, TL4= 10, TL3= 1,
TE9=10, TE10=22 TL2=9, TL1=0
TE for all activities TL for all activities
TE1 = 0, TE2 = 4, TE3=1, TE4=5, TL10 = 22, TL9=15, TL8=17, TL7=15,
TE6=11, TE7=15, TE8=17, TL6= 16, TL5= 7, TL4= 10, TL3= 1,
TE9=10, TE10=22 TL2=9, TL1=0
(iii) From the Table above, we observe that the
activities 1 – 3, 3 – 5, 5 – 7,7 – 8 and 8 – 10 are
critical activities as their floats are zero.
 PROJECT EVALUATION REVIEW TECHNIQUE, (PERT)

In the critical path method, the time estimates are assumed to be

known with certainty. In certain projects like research and
development, new product introductions, it is difficult to estimate the
time of various activities.
Hence PERT is used in such projects with a probabilistic method using three time
estimates for an activity, rather than a single estimate, as shown in Figure 8.22.
Optimistic time tO:
It is the shortest time taken to complete the
activity. It means that if everything goes well
then there is more chance of completing the
activity within this time.
Most likely time tm:
It is the normal time taken to complete an
activity, if the activity were frequently
repeated under the same conditions.
Pessimistic time tp:
It is the longest time that an activity would take
to complete. It is the worst time estimate that
an activity would take if unexpected problems
are faced.
 Taking all these time estimates into consideration, the expected time
of an activity is arrived at.

The average or mean (ta) value of

the activity duration is given by,
The variance of the activity time
is calculated using the formula,

Probability for Project Duration

The probability of completing the project

within the scheduled time (Ts) or
contracted time may be obtained by
using the standard normal deviate where
Te is the expected time of project
completion.
Probability of completing the project
within the scheduled time is,
 Example
An R & D project has a list of tasks to be performed whose time
estimates are given in the Table 8.11, as follows.

a. Draw the project network.

b. Find the critical path.
c. Find the probability that the project is completed in 19 days. If the
probability is less than 20%, find the probability of completing it in
24 days.
Time expected for each activity is
calculated using the formula (5):
Similarly, the expected time is calculated
for all the activities.

The variance of activity time is

calculated using the formula (6).
Similarly, variances of all the activities
are calculated.
Construct a network diagram:

calculate the time earliest

(TE) and time Latest (TL)
for all the activities.
From the network diagram Figure 8.24, the critical path
is identified as
1-4, 4-6, 6-7, with a project duration of 22 days.
 The probability of completing the project within 19 days is given by, P (Z< Z0)

To find Z0 ,

we know, P (Z <Z Network Model 0) = 0.5 – z (1.3416) (from normal tables, z (1.3416) = 0.4099)
= 0.5 – 0.4099
= 0.0901
= 9.01%
Thus, the probability of completing the R & D project in 19 days is
9.01%.
Since the probability of completing the project in 19 days is less than 20% As in
question, we find the probability of completing it in 24 days.
 COST ANALYSIS
The two important components of any activity are the cost and time. Cost is
directly proportional to time and vice versa.

For example, in constructing a shopping complex, the expected time of

completion can be calculated using the time estimates of various activities. But
if the construction has to be finished earlier, it requires additional cost to
complete the project. We need to arrive at a time/cost trade-off between total
cost of project and total time required to complete it.
Normal time:
Normal time is the time required to
complete the activity at normal conditions
Crash time:
and cost.
Crash time is the shortest possible activity
time; crashing more than the normal time
will increase the direct cost.
Cost Slope
Cost slope is the increase in cost per unit
of time saved by crashing. A linear cost
curve
is shown in Figure 8.27.
 Example
An activity takes 4 days to complete at a normal cost of Rs. 500.00. If it is
possible to complete the activity in 2 days with an additional cost of Rs.
700.00, what is the incremental cost of the activity?

Incremental Cost or Cost Slope

It means, if one day is reduced we have to spend Rs. 100/- extra
per day.
Project Crashing
Procedure for crashing
Step1: Draw the network diagram and mark the Normal time and
Crash time.

Step2: Calculate TE and TL for all the activities.

Step3: Find the critical path and other paths.

Step 4: Find the slope for all activities and rank them in ascending
order.
 Step 5: Establish a tabular column with required field.

Step 6: Select the lowest ranked activity; check whether it is a critical activity. If
so,crash the activity, else go to the next highest ranked activity.
Note: The critical path must remain critical while crashing.
Step 7: Calculate the total cost of project for each crashing
Step 8: Repeat Step 6 until all the activities in the critical path are fully
crashed.
Example

The following Table 8.13

gives the activities of a
construction project
and other data.

If the indirect cost is Rs. 20 per day, crash the activities to find the
minimum duration of the project and the project cost associated.
 Solution
From the data provided in the table, draw the network diagram (Figure 8.28)
and find the critical path.

From the diagram, we observe that the

critical path is 1-2-5 with project
duration of
14 days

The cost slope for all activities and their

rank is calculated as shown in Table 8.14
The available paths of the network are listed down in Table 8.15
indicating the sequence of crashing (see Figure 8.29).

The sequence of crashing

and the total cost involved
is given in Table 8.16 Initial
direct cost = sum of all
normal costs given
= Rs 1100.00
Activity Project Critical Direct Cost in (Rs.) Indirect Total
Crashed Duration Path Cost in Cost in
(Rs.) (Rs.)
- 14 1-2-5 1100 14 x 20 = 1380
280

1 – 2(2) 10 1–2–5 1100 + (2 x 15) + (2 x 10 x 20 = 1580

2 – 5(2) 1–3–4–5 100) + (1 x 10) + (2 x 200
2 – 4(1) 1–2–4–5 20) = 1380
3 – 4(2)

It is not possible to crash more than 10 days, as all

the activities in the critical path are fully crashed.
Hence the minimum project duration is 10 days
with the total cost of Rs. 1580.00.
Assignment
a. Draw the project network diagram.
b. Calculate the length and variance of the critical
path.
c. What is the probability that the jobs on the critical
path can be
completed in 41 days?
AOA Project Network for House
3
Lay Dummy
foundation
2 0 Build Finish
3 1 house work
1 2 4 6 7
Design house Order and 3 1
and obtain receive Select 1 1 Select
financing materials paint carpet
5

AON Project Network for House

Lay foundations Build house
2 4
Finish work
2 3
7
Start 1 1
3
Design house and 6
3
obtain financing 5 1
1
1 Select carpet
Order and receive
darla/smbs/vit 63
Select paint
materials
 Network example
Illustration of network analysis of a minor redesign of a product and
its associated packaging.
The key question is: How long will it take to complete this project ?

darla/smbs/vit 64
For clarity, this list is kept to a minimum by specifying only
immediate relationships, that is relationships involving activities
that "occur near to each other in time".

darla/smbs/vit 65
 Questions to prepare activity network
• Is this a Start Activity?
• Is this a Finish Activity?
• What Activity Precedes this?
• What Activity Follows this?
• What Activity is Concurrent with this?

darla/smbs/vit 66
 CPM calculation
• Path
– A connected sequence of activities leading from
the starting event to the ending event
• Critical Path
– The longest path (time); determines the project
duration
• Critical Activities
– All of the activities that make up the critical path

darla/smbs/vit 67
Forward Pass
• Earliest Start Time (ES)
– earliest time an activity can start
– ES = maximum EF of immediate predecessors
• Earliest finish time (EF)
– earliest time an activity can finish
– earliest start time plus activity time
EF= ES + t

Backward Pass
 Latest Start Time (LS)
Latest time an activity can start without delaying critical path time
LS= LF - t
 Latest finish time (LF)
latest time an activity can be completed without delaying critical path time
LS = minimum LS of immediate predecessors

darla/smbs/vit 68
CPM analysis
• Draw the CPM network
• Analyze the paths through the network
• Determine the float for each activity
– Compute the activity’s float
float = LS - ES = LF - EF
– Float is the maximum amount of time that this activity can be
delay in its completion before it becomes a critical activity,
i.e., delays completion of the project
• Find the critical path is that the sequence of activities and events
where there is no “slack” i.e.. Zero slack
– Longest path through a network
• Find the project duration is minimum project completion time

darla/smbs/vit 69
 CPM Example:
• CPM Network
f, 15

g, 17 h, 9
a, 6
i, 6

b, 8
d, 13 j, 12

c, 5
e, 9

darla/smbs/vit 70
 CPM Example
• ES and EF Times
f, 15

g, 17 h, 9
a, 6
0 6 i, 6

b, 8
0 8 d, 13 j, 12

c, 5
0 5 e, 9

darla/smbs/vit 71
 CPM Example
• ES and EF Times f, 15
6 21
g, 17 h, 9
a, 6
0 6 6 23 i, 6

b, 8
0 8 d, 13 j, 12
8 21
c, 5
0 5 e, 9
5 14
darla/smbs/vit 72
 CPM Example

• ES and EF Times f, 15
6 21
g, 17 h, 9
a, 6
6 23 21 30
0 6 i, 6
23 29
b, 8
0 8 d, 13 j, 12
8 21 21 33
c, 5
0 5 e, 9
Project’s EF = 33
5 14
darla/smbs/vit 73
 CPM Example
• LS and LF Times f, 15
6 21
h, 9
21 30
a, 6 g, 17
6 23 24 33
0 6 i, 6
23 29
b, 8 27 33
0 8 d, 13 j, 12
8 21 21 33
c, 5 21 33
0 5 e, 9
5 14
darla/smbs/vit 74
 CPM Example
• LS and LF Times f, 15
6 21
h, 9
18 24
21 30
a, 6 g, 17
6 23 24 33
0 6 i, 6
4 10 10 27 23 29
b, 8 27 33
0 8 d, 13 j, 12
0 8 8 21 21 33
c, 5 8 21 21 33
0 5 e, 9
7 12 5 14
12 21
darla/smbs/vit 75
 CPM Example
• Float
f, 15
3 6 21 h, 9
9 24
21 30
a, 6 g, 17 3
24 33
3 0 6 4 6 23 i, 6
3 9 10 27
4 23 29
b, 8 27 33
0 8 d, 13 j, 12
0
0 8 0 8 21 21 33
8 21 0
c, 5 21 33
e, 9
7 0 5
7 12 7 5 14
12 21
darla/smbs/vit 76
 CPM Example
• Critical Path
f, 15

g, 17 h, 9
a, 6
i, 6

b, 8
d, 13 j, 12

c, 5
e, 9

darla/smbs/vit 77
 PERT
• PERT is based on the assumption that an activity’s duration
follows a probability distribution instead of being a single value
• Three time estimates are required to compute the parameters of
an activity’s duration distribution:
– pessimistic time (tp ) - the time the activity would take if
things did not go well
– most likely time (tm ) - the consensus best estimate of the
activity’s duration
– optimistic time (to ) - the time the activity would take if
things did go well

Mean (expected time): te =

tp + 4 tm + to
6
2
tp - to
Variance: Vt =  =
2
darla/smbs/vit 78
6
 PERT analysis
• Draw the network.
• Analyze the paths through the network and find the critical path.
• The length of the critical path is the mean of the project duration
probability distribution which is assumed to be normal
• The standard deviation of the project duration probability
distribution is computed by adding the variances of the critical
activities (all of the activities that make up the critical path) and
taking the square root of that sum
• Probability computations can now be made using the normal
distribution table.

darla/smbs/vit 79
 Probability computation
Determine probability that project is completed within specified
time
x-
Z=

where  = tp = project mean time
 = project standard mean time
x = (proposed ) specified time

darla/smbs/vit 80
Normal Distribution of Project Time

Probability

Z

 = tp x Time
darla/smbs/vit 81
 PERT Example
Immed. Optimistic Most Likely Pessimistic
Activity Predec. Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.) Time (Hr.)
A -- 4 6 8
B -- 1 4.5 5
C A 3 3 3
D A 4 5 6
E A 0.5 1 1.5
F B,C 3 4 5
G B,C 1 1.5 5
H E,F 5 6 7
I E,F 2 5 8
J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5
K G,I 3 darla/smbs/vit 5 7 82
 PERT Example
PERT Network

A E H J

B I K
F

83
 PERT Example
Activity Expected Time Variance
A 6 4/9
B 4 4/9
C 3 0
D 5 1/9
E 1 1/36
F 4 1/9
G 2 4/9
H 6 1/9
I 5 1
J 3 1/9
K 5 4/9

84
 PERT Example
Activity ES EF LS LF Slack
A 0 6 0 6 0
*critical
B 0 4 5 9 5
C 6 9 6 9 0*
D 6 11 15 20 9
E 6 7 12 13 6
F 9 13 9 13 0*
G 9 11 16 18 7
H 13 19 14 20 1
I 13 18 13 18 0*
J 19 22 20 23 1
K 18 23 18 23 0*
85
 PERT Example

Vpath = VA + VC + VF + VI + VK
= 4/9 + 0 + 1/9 + 1 + 4/9
= 2
path = 1.414
z = (24 - 23)/(24-23)/1.414 = .71
From the Standard Normal Distribution
table:
P(z < .71) = .5 + .2612 = .7612
86
PROJECT COST
 Cost consideration in project
• Project managers may have the option or requirement to crash the
project, or accelerate the completion of the project.
• This is accomplished by reducing the length of the critical
path(s).
• The length of the critical path is reduced by reducing the duration
of the activities on the critical path.
• If each activity requires the expenditure of an amount of money
to reduce its duration by one unit of time, then the project
manager selects the least cost critical activity, reduces it by one
time unit, and traces that change through the remainder of the
network.
• As a result of a reduction in an activity’s time, a new critical path
may be created.
• When there is more than one critical path, each of the critical
paths must be reduced.
• If the length of the project needs to be reduced further, the 88
process is repeated.
 Project Crashing
• Crashing
– reducing project time by expending additional resources
• Crash time
– an amount of time an activity is reduced
• Crash cost
– cost of reducing activity time
• Goal
– reduce project duration at minimum cost

89
 Activity crashing

Crash
cost Crashing activity
Activity cost

Slope = crash cost per unit time

Normal Activity
Normal
cost
Normal
time
Crash Activity time
time 90
 Time-Cost Relationship
 Crashing costs increase as project duration decreases
 Indirect costs increase as project duration increases
 Reduce project length as long as crashing costs are less than
indirect costs
Time-Cost Tradeoff
Min total cost = Total project cost
optimal project
Indirect
time
cost
cost

Direct cost

time 91
 Project Crashing example

2 4
1
8 2
7
1 4
1
2

3 6
4 5 4
4

92
 Time Cost data

Activity Normal Normal Crash Crash Allowable slope

time cost Rs time cost Rs crash time
1 12 3000 7 5000 5 400
2 8 2000 5 3500 3 500
3 4 4000 3 7000 1 3000
4 12 50000 9 71000 3 7000
5 4 500 1 1100 3 200
6 4 500 1 1100 3 200
7 4 1500 3 22000 1 7000

75000 110700

93
 R500 R7000
Project duration = 36
2 4
8 12 R700
7
1 From…..
4
12

R400 3 6
4 5 4
4 R200
R3000
R200

R500 R7000

2 4
8 12 R700

To….. 7
1 4
7
Project 6
R400 3
5 4
duration = 31 4
4 R200
R3000
Additional cost R200
94
= R2000
 Benefits of CPM/PERT
• Useful at many stages of project management
• Mathematically simple
• Give critical path and slack time
• Provide project documentation
• Useful in monitoring costs

CPM/PERT can answer the following important

questions:
• How long will the entire project take to be completed? What are the
risks involved?
• Which are the critical activities or tasks in the project which could
delay the entire project if they were not completed on time?
• Is the project on schedule, behind schedule or ahead of schedule?
• If the project has to be finished earlier than planned, what is the best
way to do this at the least cost? 95
 Limitations to CPM/PERT
• Clearly defined, independent and stable activities
• Specified precedence relationships
• Over emphasis on critical paths
• Deterministic CPM model
• Activity time estimates are subjective and depend on judgment
• PERT assumes a beta distribution for these time estimates, but
the actual distribution may be different
• PERT consistently underestimates the expected project
completion time due to alternate paths becoming critical

To overcome the limitation, Monte Carlo simulations can be

performed on the network to eliminate the optimistic bias

96
 Computer Software
for Project Management

• Microsoft Project (Microsoft Corp.)

• MacProject (Claris Corp.)
• PowerProject (ASTA Development Inc.)
• Primavera Project Planner (Primavera)
• Project Scheduler (Scitor Corp.)
• Project Workbench (ABT Corp.)

97
 Practice Example
A social project manager is faced with a project with the following
activities:
Activity Description Duration
Social work team to live in village 5w
Social research team to do survey 12w
Analyse results of survey 5w
Establish mother & child health program 14w
Establish rural credit programme 15w
Carry out immunization of under fives 4w

Draw network diagram and show the critical path.

Calculate project duration. 98
 Practice problem
Activity Description Duration
1-2 Social work team to live in village 5w
1-3 Social research team to do survey 12w
3-4 Analyse results of survey 5w
2-4 Establish mother & child health program 14w
3-5 Establish rural credit programme 15w
4-5 Carry out immunization of under fives 4w

4
2

1 5

3
99
100