Nim : 190301211
Kelas : Manajemen 4.D/Pagi
Matkul : Ekonometrika
Abstract
Air tra$c analysis is an important task both for airlines and the concerned civil aviation authority. This paper addresses analyzing
and forecasting international air travel market in Saudi Arabia using econometric models. In this study an attempt is made to develop
several models for the air travel demand with di!erent combinations of explanatory variables utilizing stepwise regression technique.
The model with the two variables (i.e., total expenditures and population size) is the most appropriate model to represent the demand
for international air travel in Saudi Arabia. 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
0969-6997/01/$ - see front matter 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 9 6 9 - 6 9 9 7 ( 0 0 ) 0 0 0 4 3 - 0
144 S.Y. Abed et al. / Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148
Poore (1993) has conducted a study to test the hypoth- population size to formulate a model that represent
esis that forecasts of the future demand for air transpor- domestic air travel demand at the Kingdom.
tation o!ered by airplane manufacturers and aviation The literature review indicates that various studies
regulators are reasonable and representative of the trends refer to air travel forecasting. There are only few studies
implicit in actual experience. The test compared forecasts on econometric modeling of air travel analysis in Saudi
issued by Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, Airbus Industry Arabia. The objective of this paper is to develop an
and the International Civil Aviation Organization with econometric model so as to analyze international air
actual experience and the results of a baseline model of travel demand in Saudi Arabia.
the demand for revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs).
The model is the combination of two equations describ-
ing the RPKs demanded by the high- and the low-income 3. Data sources
groups, respectively. While variations in the RPKs de-
manded by the high-income group are related to changes Econometric model is invaluable tool for increasing
in income per capita, variations in the RPKs demanded the understanding of the way an economic system works
by the low-income segment are related to changes in the and for testing and evaluating alternative policies. How-
population size. The model conforms with the assump- ever, such model are useless if it operates on poor quality
tions and conditions for appropriate use of regression historical data or faulty knowledge of the causative
analysis. factors underlying tra$c growth (BCC, 1987). The avail-
Another study by Ghobrial (1992) presents an econo- ability of a consistent data set allows the use of annual
metric model that estimates the aggregate demand for data for the period 1971}1992. The data used in the
an airline. The demand is expressed in terms of airline estimation of the model originate from a variety of sour-
network structure, operating characteristics and "rm- ces. Economic and demographic data of the Kingdom
speci"c variables. A number of model formulations with have been taken from various issues of Achievements of
di!erent combinations of explanatory variables are the Development Plans, published by Ministry of Plann-
estimated using the two-stage-least-squares procedure. ing (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) (Economic Research De-
The results suggest that the airline aggregate demand is partment in Saudi Arabian Airlines, 1990); data on GDP,
elastic with respect to yield, and inelastic with respect to GDP growth rates, real e!ective exchange rates, imports
network size and hub dominance. and interest rates are from the International Monetary
Saudi Arabian Bechtel Company (1979) conducted Fund's International Financial Statistics Yearbook
a study to update the tra$c forecasts and planning as- (1994); and data on Saudi air travel are from PCA Statist-
sumptions for the New Riyadh International Airport. ical Yearbooks , published by Presidency of Civil Avi-
Four economic variables (e.g., gross domestic product, ation (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia). When interpreting
government appropriations, project appropriations and economic data it is important to distinguish between the
import of goods and services) that are related to air tra$c e!ects of in#ation and changes in the real level of eco-
activities were chosen for the study. Each variable was nomic activity. To convert the data collected from the
correlated with the annual domestic and international current prices to real or the constant prices, the consumer
passenger at the old Riyadh airport. In case of domestic price index at 1988 constant prices was used.
passengers, the correlation coe$cient varies between
0.936 and 0.997 and the best result was obtained with
government appropriations. 4. The determinants of international air travel demand in
For international passengers, the correlation coe$c- Saudi Arabia
ient varies between 0.97 and 0.993 and the best result
was obtained with the imports * cost, insurance and Saudi Arabia is endowed with numerous natural op-
freight (CIF). portunities for air travel because of its geographical loca-
The study of Alperovich and Machnes (1994) enabled tion, being the site of the two holy mosques, its vast land
considerable improvement of understanding of many di- area spreading from the Red sea in the west to the
mensions of air travel. The principal "ndings of their Arabian gulf in the east (almost 1400 km) and from
analysis are that (1) air travel to all foreign destinations is Yemen in the south to Jordan in the north (almost
highly elastic in income and inelastic in price, and 1500 km), its rapid development in all spheres of life and
(2) there is no di!erence in demand elasticity between its friendly relations with the world community. It is
"nancial and non-"nancial assets and that both are in- among the top 20 tourism business generating countries
elastic. and one of the most attractive countries for foreign
Bafail et al. (2000) developed several models for fore- workers which support an argument for a strong base for
casting the long-term demand for domestic air travel in air travel (Siddiqui, 1994).
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They used several ex- Air transportation in the Kingdom has undergone
planatory variables including total expenditures and considerable expansions and developments during
S.Y. Abed et al. / Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148 145
the past years. There are 25 international and domestic Domestic Product, Private Non Oil Gross Domestic
airports across the country. The number of passengers Product, Government Non Oil Gross Domestic Product,
(arriving and departing) handled by all the airports Total Non Oil Gross Domestic Product, Total Gross
increased at an average annual rate of 15%, rising from Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, Per Capita
1.6 million in 1970 to 33 million in 1994. The high air Income, Import of Goods and Services, Exchange Rate
tra$c growth rate percentage between 1970 and 1994 (Saudi Riyals/SDR), Exchange Rate (Saudi Riyals/US$),
re#ects growth in Saudi economy at this period. Fig. 1 Population Size, Total Expenditures, Private Consump-
shows the total number of passenger (in million) move- tion Expenditures, Government Consumption Expendi-
ments on international #ights in Saudi Arabia between tures, Total Consumption Expenditures, and Yield.
1971 and 1994.
There are several factors a!ecting air travel demand,
each factor is composed of elements which can stimulate 5. Discussion
or constrain air travel growth. For air travel demand
analysis purpose, these factors are more conveniently An attempt is made to study the relationship between
classi"ed into two broad groups: those external to the variables by using correlation matrix so as to formulate
airline industry and those within the industry itself. or specify a model with which the economic phenomena
The external environment includes those factors which can be explored empirically. It is observed from the
are outside the control of the individual airline and correlation matrix (Table 1) that since there is a high
even the entire airline industry. These are basically long- correlation between private non-oil GDP, government
range economic, social, demographic, and political non-oil GDP and their total, the components of the
trends, for example, the age and income distribution of its non-oil GDP are excluded and the total amount is taken
population, its ethnic and cultural ties to other nations, into consideration. The matrix also demonstrates a
etc. (BCAC, 1993). Similarly, short-term conditions such low correlation between the international air travel
as in#ation, interest rate and currency exchange rates can demand and the oil GDP. This can be explained by the
have a strong e!ect on the growth potential of both fact that the oil revenue accrues directly to the Saudi
individual airlines and the total industry. government and the non-oil GDP is indirectly in-
Reviewing and gathering information relevant to the #uenced by government oil revenue through mainly
characteristics of the relationship as well as the studies government expenditure. Moreover, the oil sector's in-
already published on the subject has enabled to make come has been #uctuating sharply during the last years.
a list of the explanatory variables, which are discussed to Therefore, it is logical to disregard the oil sector at the
develop econometric model for international air travel time of developing model for the air travel demand in
demand in Saudi Arabia. These variables are Oil Gross Saudi Arabia.
146 S.Y. Abed et al. / Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148
Table 1
Correlation matrix for all candidate explanatory variables and international air travel (1971}1992)
> X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
> 1 0.19 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.8 0.93 0.84 0.94 0.15 !0.25 0.85 0.89 0.97 0.96 0.97 !0.40
X 1 !0.01 0.13 0.05 0.71 0.32 0.33 0.24 !0.34 !0.72 !0.14 0.48 0.18 0.07 0.12 !0.32
X 1 0.98 1 0.7 0.82 0.7 0.88 0.36 !0.02 0.96 0.76 0.96 0.99 0.98 !0.22
X 1 0.99 0.79 0.85 0.71 0.88 0.36 !0.1 0.94 0.8 0.99 0.98 0.99 !0.28
X 1 0.74 0.84 0.71 0.88 0.36 !0.05 0.96 0.78 0.97 0.99 0.99 !0.24
X 1 0.8 0.72 0.79 0.02 !0.52 0.58 0.87 0.81 0.74 0.78 !0.39
X 1 0.81 0.86 0.05 !0.48 0.71 0.91 0.86 0.83 0.85 !0.67
X 1 0.93 !0.34 !0.44 0.49 0.93 0.76 0.77 0.78 !0.31
X 1 !0.1 !0.28 0.73 0.91 0.91 0.93 0.93 !0.26
X 1 0.47 0.57 !0.16 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.04
X 1 0.13 !0.51 !0.16 !0.08 !0.11 0.7
X 1 0.57 0.89 0.92 0.91 !0.16
X 1 0.84 0.81 0.83 !0.44
X 1 0.97 0.99 !0.29
X 1 0.99 !0.21
X 1 !0.24
X 1
Where >, Demand for international air travel; X , Oil-GDP; X , Private Non-oil GDP; X , Government Non-oil GDP; X , Total Non-oil GDP;
X , Total GDP; X , Cost of Price Index; X , Per Capita Income; X , Import of Goods and Services; X , (Riyals/SDR); X , (Riyals/US Dollar);
X , Population Size; X , Total Expenditure; X , Government Consumption Expenditure; X , Private Consumption Expenditure; X , Total
Consumption Expenditure; X , Yield.
estimated t-values are in parentheses): high variance in#ation factor (VIF). This means that they
are almost linear combinations of the other independent
>"!0.9451#0.014057X #0.029507X
variables and indicate high variance of the regression
coe$cients. The correlation matrix shown in Table 1 also
#0.01297X , supports this evidence. However, multicollinearity may
arise because there is a tendency of economic variables to
Adjusted R"0.981. (1) move together overtime.
>"!1.18!0.054941X #0.044478X
\
6. Results
#0.03573X ,
By looking into the results of regression analysis, it is
Adjusted R"0.949. (2) found that the population size has a positive e!ect on
international air travel demand * holding other things
>"!2.2566#0.021314X #0.39522X ,
the same. As the population size goes up by one percent-
age point, on the average demand for international air
Adjusted R"0.959. (3) travel goes up by 0.021 million passengers. Likewise, if
>"!1.1431#0.016722X #0.035623X , the total expenditure goes up by one percentage point, on
the average demand for international air travel goes up
by 0.395 million passengers, other things keeping the
Adjusted R"0.979. (4)
same.
If "0.05 or 5% level, the two-tailed critical t value is The two-tailed t-test can be used to test whether such
about 2.093 for 19 d.f. If is "xed at 0.01 or 1% level, the a null hypothesis stands up against the (two-sided) alter-
critical t value for 19 d.f. is 2.861 (two-tailed). The output native hypothesis that true population coe$cient is dif-
indicates signi"cant linear relationship between the de- ferent from zero. The degrees of freedom are 19, which
pendent and independent variables in all the models are obtained by subtracting the number of parameters
since calculated t values exceed critical t values. Adjusted estimated, which are 3 in the present instance from
R indicate that, for all the models, most of the observa- n ("22). If is set at 0.05, the two-tailed critical t value is
tions fall on the regression line. This means that a strong about 2.093 for 19 d.f. If is "xed at 0.01 or 1% level, the
linear relationship exists between the dependent variable critical t value for 19 d.f. is 2.861 (two-tailed). Looking at
and independent variables. the t-values presented in Table 3, it is found that each
As shown in Table 2, F values are high for all the partial regression coe$cient is statistically signi"cantly
models and the observed signi"cance level is less than di!erent from zero at the 1% level of signi"cance.
0.00005 which also indicates that there is a signi"cant What about the overall signi"cance of the estimated
relationship between the dependent variable and the in- regression line? That is, the null hypothesis that all par-
dependent variables. The computed d values for interna- tial slopes are simultaneously equal to zero or, equiva-
tional air travel demand models are closer to 2, which lently, R"0, be accepted? This hypothesis was tested
implies that there is no autocorrelation. The tolerance of with the help of F-test. The F value has an F distribution
a variable is commonly used to measure collinearity. The
SPSS output shows high correlation exists between the Table 3
independent variables of the international air travel mod- Modeling international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia (Least-
els f (X , X , X ) and f (X , X , X ) and it is less in the squares coe$cients with standard errors and absolute t-values in paren-
model f (X , X ) while the model f (X , X ) does not theses)
su!er from multicollinearity. This is clear because most
Independent Variables International Air Travel
of the independent variables have small tolerance and Demand Model
with 2 and 19 d.f. If is set at 0.05, the F table shows the airlines and civil aviation authorities can develop their
critical F value of 4.38. The corresponding value at corporate plan. Although there is no clear cut Saudi
"0.01 is 8.18. The computed F of 244 far exceeds either policy regarding air travel, the study would provide
of this critical F value. Therefore, the null hypothesis, i.e., a policy guideline in studying airports facilities.
all partial slopes are simultaneously equal to zero or,
alternatively, R"0, is rejected. Population size and
total expenditures, collectively and individually, in#u-
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