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Nama : Rinda Permai Safira

Nim : 190301211
Kelas : Manajemen 4.D/Pagi
Matkul : Ekonometrika

Tugas Review and Critical Journal

Judul An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in


Saudi Arabia.
(Analisis ekonometrik dari permintaan perjalanan udara
internasional di Arab Saudi)
Jurnal Journal of Air Transport Management
Volume dan Halaman VOL 7,143-148
Tahun 2001
Penulis Seraj Y. Abed, Abdullah O. Ba-Fail, Sajjad M. Jasimuddin
Reviewer Rindah Permai Safira
Tanggal 17 april 2021
Tujuan Penelitian Tujuan peneliti untuk mempelajari hubungan antar variabel
dengan menggunakan matriks korelasi sehingga dapat
merumuskan atau menentukan model yang dengannya
fenomena ekonomi dapat dieksplorasi secara empiris.
Metode Penelitian Jurnal ini membahas analisis dan peramalan pasar perjalanan
udara internasional di Arab Saudi menggunakan model
ekonometrik. Dalam penelitian ini dilakukan upaya untuk
mengembangkan beberapa model kebutuhan perjalanan udara
dengan kombinasi variabel penjelas yang berbeda dengan
menggunakan teknik regresi bertahap.
Model dengan dua variabel (yaitu total pengeluaran dan ukuran
populasi) merupakan model yang paling tepat untuk
merepresentasikan permintaan perjalanan udara internasional di
Arab Saudi.
Hasil Penelitian Jurnal ini memberikan penjelasan rinci tentang langkah-langkah
yang diikuti untuk pengembangan model ekonometrik
permintaan perjalanan udara internasional di Arab Saudi.
Model ekonometrika dicoba untuk menganalisis dan
meramalkan lalu lintas udara melalui pembentukan hubungan
statistik antara faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi permintaan
dan tingkat lalu lintas yang sesuai. Dari
pengukuran statistik untuk mengevaluasi model, ditemukan
bahwa ukuran populasi dan total pengeluaran merupakan
penentu utama perjalanan udara internasional di Arab Saudi.
Model ini sangat bagus dalam hal Goodness of Fit Pengukuran
dan tidak menderita multikolinearitas. Berdasarkan analisis lalu
lintas udara melalui model yang diusulkan, the maskapai
penerbangan dan otoritas penerbangan sipil dapat
mengembangkan rencana perusahaan mereka. Meskipun tidak
ada kebijakan Saudi yang jelas mengenai perjalanan udara,studi
tersebut akan memberikan pedoman kebijakan dalam
mempelajari fasilitas bandara.
Kelebihan  Memaparkan secara jelas dan lengkap tujuan dibuat
artikel ini
 Meyertakan referensi
 Menyertakan lampiran Model Matrix Kolerasi untuk
variabel serta model mulai dari pemodelan ekonometrik
hingga teknik deret waktu, untuk merepresentasikan
pasar perjalanan udara.
Kekurangan  Dalam jurnal tersebut penulis banyak menjelaskan
tentang penelitian atau jurnal sebelumnya oleh penulis
lain dan ada beberapa kata yang cenderung
membanding-bandingkan analisi jurnal sebelumnya dan
jurnal penulis
Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148

An econometric analysis of international air travel demand in


Saudi Arabia
Seraj Y. Abed, Abdullah O. Ba-Fail, Sajjad M. Jasimuddin*
Industrial Engineering Department, King Abdulaziz University, P.O. Box-80204, Jeddah 21589, Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Air tra$c analysis is an important task both for airlines and the concerned civil aviation authority. This paper addresses analyzing
and forecasting international air travel market in Saudi Arabia using econometric models. In this study an attempt is made to develop
several models for the air travel demand with di!erent combinations of explanatory variables utilizing stepwise regression technique.
The model with the two variables (i.e., total expenditures and population size) is the most appropriate model to represent the demand
for international air travel in Saudi Arabia.  2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Econometric analysis; Air travel demand; Saudi Arabia

1. Introduction economic recession, or the uncertainties with regard to


future regulatory conditions. Such questions can only be
Analyzing air travel market is an integral part of an answered if the forecaster has speci"ed and calibrated
airline's corporate plan that re#ects the capacity utiliz- a formal model that shows the in#uence and interaction
ation, manpower requirements and "nancial projections of all the relevant variables and not just one (i.e., time).
for the operating capital projects, etc. It helps make Because of the complex nature of air transportation in-
decisions regarding the development of infrastructure dustry, the past records of air tra$c forecasters (using
facilities, thereby ensures the improvement of services to mostly trend extrapolation) has not been impressive. In
air passengers. Moreover, it helps to reduce the airline recent years, therefore, the trend has been to develop
company's risk by objectively evaluating the demand side causal models that not only predict tra$c but also deter-
of the air transport business. Analyzing of international mine the impact of changes within the economic environ-
air passenger movements should not be considered pure- ment on tra$c. This paper aims at developing
ly as rigid lines on charts which dictate airline's future. econometric models that link future growth in interna-
Instead, it should be used dynamically to help an airline tional air travel demand in Saudi Arabia with expected
to evaluate strategies (Boeing Commercial Airplane developments of causative factors. However, there are
Company, 1993). also softer methods of forecasting employing expert
Various methods are available, ranging from econo- panels as used by British Airways.
metric modeling to time series techniques, for represent-
ing the air travel market. Time series approaches are the
most common methods for forecasting the tra$c de- 2. Literature review
mand. These methods are handicapped by their inability
to identify the causes of market growth and to link the During the last three decades, the study of air travel
future growth with expected developments of causative demand has attracted considerable attention of re-
factors. They cannot, however, explain the impact of searchers and academics. An extensive literature has
a reduction in fares, the introduction of new aircraft, an emerged to explain the determinants of air travel de-
mand. Pioneering work in this area includes, among
others, that by Ghobrial (1992), Poore (1993), Saudi
Arabian Bechtel Company (1979), Alperovich and
* Corresponding author. Machnes (1994) and Bafail et al. (2000). Some of the
E-mail address: sjasimuddin@hotmail.com (S.M. Jasimuddin). research done in this area will be reviewed in this section.

0969-6997/01/$ - see front matter  2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S 0 9 6 9 - 6 9 9 7 ( 0 0 ) 0 0 0 4 3 - 0
144 S.Y. Abed et al. / Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148

Poore (1993) has conducted a study to test the hypoth- population size to formulate a model that represent
esis that forecasts of the future demand for air transpor- domestic air travel demand at the Kingdom.
tation o!ered by airplane manufacturers and aviation The literature review indicates that various studies
regulators are reasonable and representative of the trends refer to air travel forecasting. There are only few studies
implicit in actual experience. The test compared forecasts on econometric modeling of air travel analysis in Saudi
issued by Boeing, McDonnell Douglas, Airbus Industry Arabia. The objective of this paper is to develop an
and the International Civil Aviation Organization with econometric model so as to analyze international air
actual experience and the results of a baseline model of travel demand in Saudi Arabia.
the demand for revenue passenger kilometers (RPKs).
The model is the combination of two equations describ-
ing the RPKs demanded by the high- and the low-income 3. Data sources
groups, respectively. While variations in the RPKs de-
manded by the high-income group are related to changes Econometric model is invaluable tool for increasing
in income per capita, variations in the RPKs demanded the understanding of the way an economic system works
by the low-income segment are related to changes in the and for testing and evaluating alternative policies. How-
population size. The model conforms with the assump- ever, such model are useless if it operates on poor quality
tions and conditions for appropriate use of regression historical data or faulty knowledge of the causative
analysis. factors underlying tra$c growth (BCC, 1987). The avail-
Another study by Ghobrial (1992) presents an econo- ability of a consistent data set allows the use of annual
metric model that estimates the aggregate demand for data for the period 1971}1992. The data used in the
an airline. The demand is expressed in terms of airline estimation of the model originate from a variety of sour-
network structure, operating characteristics and "rm- ces. Economic and demographic data of the Kingdom
speci"c variables. A number of model formulations with have been taken from various issues of Achievements of
di!erent combinations of explanatory variables are the Development Plans, published by Ministry of Plann-
estimated using the two-stage-least-squares procedure. ing (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia) (Economic Research De-
The results suggest that the airline aggregate demand is partment in Saudi Arabian Airlines, 1990); data on GDP,
elastic with respect to yield, and inelastic with respect to GDP growth rates, real e!ective exchange rates, imports
network size and hub dominance. and interest rates are from the International Monetary
Saudi Arabian Bechtel Company (1979) conducted Fund's International Financial Statistics Yearbook
a study to update the tra$c forecasts and planning as- (1994); and data on Saudi air travel are from PCA Statist-
sumptions for the New Riyadh International Airport. ical Yearbooks , published by Presidency of Civil Avi-
Four economic variables (e.g., gross domestic product, ation (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia). When interpreting
government appropriations, project appropriations and economic data it is important to distinguish between the
import of goods and services) that are related to air tra$c e!ects of in#ation and changes in the real level of eco-
activities were chosen for the study. Each variable was nomic activity. To convert the data collected from the
correlated with the annual domestic and international current prices to real or the constant prices, the consumer
passenger at the old Riyadh airport. In case of domestic price index at 1988 constant prices was used.
passengers, the correlation coe$cient varies between
0.936 and 0.997 and the best result was obtained with
government appropriations. 4. The determinants of international air travel demand in
For international passengers, the correlation coe$c- Saudi Arabia
ient varies between 0.97 and 0.993 and the best result
was obtained with the imports * cost, insurance and Saudi Arabia is endowed with numerous natural op-
freight (CIF). portunities for air travel because of its geographical loca-
The study of Alperovich and Machnes (1994) enabled tion, being the site of the two holy mosques, its vast land
considerable improvement of understanding of many di- area spreading from the Red sea in the west to the
mensions of air travel. The principal "ndings of their Arabian gulf in the east (almost 1400 km) and from
analysis are that (1) air travel to all foreign destinations is Yemen in the south to Jordan in the north (almost
highly elastic in income and inelastic in price, and 1500 km), its rapid development in all spheres of life and
(2) there is no di!erence in demand elasticity between its friendly relations with the world community. It is
"nancial and non-"nancial assets and that both are in- among the top 20 tourism business generating countries
elastic. and one of the most attractive countries for foreign
Bafail et al. (2000) developed several models for fore- workers which support an argument for a strong base for
casting the long-term demand for domestic air travel in air travel (Siddiqui, 1994).
the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. They used several ex- Air transportation in the Kingdom has undergone
planatory variables including total expenditures and considerable expansions and developments during
S.Y. Abed et al. / Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148 145

Fig. 1. Annual passenger movements on international #ights in Saudi Arabia (1971}1994).

the past years. There are 25 international and domestic Domestic Product, Private Non Oil Gross Domestic
airports across the country. The number of passengers Product, Government Non Oil Gross Domestic Product,
(arriving and departing) handled by all the airports Total Non Oil Gross Domestic Product, Total Gross
increased at an average annual rate of 15%, rising from Domestic Product, Consumer Price Index, Per Capita
1.6 million in 1970 to 33 million in 1994. The high air Income, Import of Goods and Services, Exchange Rate
tra$c growth rate percentage between 1970 and 1994 (Saudi Riyals/SDR), Exchange Rate (Saudi Riyals/US$),
re#ects growth in Saudi economy at this period. Fig. 1 Population Size, Total Expenditures, Private Consump-
shows the total number of passenger (in million) move- tion Expenditures, Government Consumption Expendi-
ments on international #ights in Saudi Arabia between tures, Total Consumption Expenditures, and Yield.
1971 and 1994.
There are several factors a!ecting air travel demand,
each factor is composed of elements which can stimulate 5. Discussion
or constrain air travel growth. For air travel demand
analysis purpose, these factors are more conveniently An attempt is made to study the relationship between
classi"ed into two broad groups: those external to the variables by using correlation matrix so as to formulate
airline industry and those within the industry itself. or specify a model with which the economic phenomena
The external environment includes those factors which can be explored empirically. It is observed from the
are outside the control of the individual airline and correlation matrix (Table 1) that since there is a high
even the entire airline industry. These are basically long- correlation between private non-oil GDP, government
range economic, social, demographic, and political non-oil GDP and their total, the components of the
trends, for example, the age and income distribution of its non-oil GDP are excluded and the total amount is taken
population, its ethnic and cultural ties to other nations, into consideration. The matrix also demonstrates a
etc. (BCAC, 1993). Similarly, short-term conditions such low correlation between the international air travel
as in#ation, interest rate and currency exchange rates can demand and the oil GDP. This can be explained by the
have a strong e!ect on the growth potential of both fact that the oil revenue accrues directly to the Saudi
individual airlines and the total industry. government and the non-oil GDP is indirectly in-
Reviewing and gathering information relevant to the #uenced by government oil revenue through mainly
characteristics of the relationship as well as the studies government expenditure. Moreover, the oil sector's in-
already published on the subject has enabled to make come has been #uctuating sharply during the last years.
a list of the explanatory variables, which are discussed to Therefore, it is logical to disregard the oil sector at the
develop econometric model for international air travel time of developing model for the air travel demand in
demand in Saudi Arabia. These variables are Oil Gross Saudi Arabia.
146 S.Y. Abed et al. / Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148

Table 1
Correlation matrix for all candidate explanatory variables and international air travel (1971}1992)

> X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X
               
> 1 0.19 0.95 0.96 0.96 0.8 0.93 0.84 0.94 0.15 !0.25 0.85 0.89 0.97 0.96 0.97 !0.40
X 1 !0.01 0.13 0.05 0.71 0.32 0.33 0.24 !0.34 !0.72 !0.14 0.48 0.18 0.07 0.12 !0.32

X 1 0.98 1 0.7 0.82 0.7 0.88 0.36 !0.02 0.96 0.76 0.96 0.99 0.98 !0.22

X 1 0.99 0.79 0.85 0.71 0.88 0.36 !0.1 0.94 0.8 0.99 0.98 0.99 !0.28

X 1 0.74 0.84 0.71 0.88 0.36 !0.05 0.96 0.78 0.97 0.99 0.99 !0.24

X 1 0.8 0.72 0.79 0.02 !0.52 0.58 0.87 0.81 0.74 0.78 !0.39

X 1 0.81 0.86 0.05 !0.48 0.71 0.91 0.86 0.83 0.85 !0.67

X 1 0.93 !0.34 !0.44 0.49 0.93 0.76 0.77 0.78 !0.31

X 1 !0.1 !0.28 0.73 0.91 0.91 0.93 0.93 !0.26

X 1 0.47 0.57 !0.16 0.25 0.26 0.25 0.04

X 1 0.13 !0.51 !0.16 !0.08 !0.11 0.7

X 1 0.57 0.89 0.92 0.91 !0.16

X 1 0.84 0.81 0.83 !0.44

X 1 0.97 0.99 !0.29

X 1 0.99 !0.21

X 1 !0.24

X 1

Where >, Demand for international air travel; X , Oil-GDP; X , Private Non-oil GDP; X , Government Non-oil GDP; X , Total Non-oil GDP;
   
X , Total GDP; X , Cost of Price Index; X , Per Capita Income; X , Import of Goods and Services; X , (Riyals/SDR); X , (Riyals/US Dollar);
     
X , Population Size; X , Total Expenditure; X , Government Consumption Expenditure; X , Private Consumption Expenditure; X , Total
    
Consumption Expenditure; X , Yield.


The correlation matrix also illustrates a high correla- Group I: (X , X , X , X ).


   
tion between private consumption expenditures, govern- Group II: (X , X , X ).
  
ment consumption expenditures and their total. It is Group III: (X , X , X ).
  
also found that there is comparatively a low correlation Group IV: (X , X , X ).
  
between the air travel demand and the yield that repres-
ents the cost of air travel. So these variables were ex- A sequence of regression equations is computed by
cluded from the model. The list of variables relevant to using di!erent combination of the group's variables
the air travel demand in the Kingdom can be narrowed through stepwise regression procedure for selecting inde-
down to seven as follows: Total Non-Oil Gross Domestic pendent variables. At each step, an independent variable
Product in billion SR (X ), Consumer Price Index in is either added or deleted until the prediction of the

Percentage (X ), Import of Goods and Services in billion dependent variable (international air travel demand)

SR (X ), Per Capita Income in thousand SR (X ), Popu- does not signi"cantly improve. These models or regres-
 
lation Size in million (X ), Total Expenditures in billion sion equations were developed using SPSS software. The

SR (X ), and Total Consumption Expenditures in billion SPSS output shows the relevant variables in every group

SR (X ). that best specify the model as follows:

While per capita income is the gross domestic Group I (X , X , X , X ): the subset of the group's
   
product divided by the population size, gross domestic variables which appear most relevant and best specify the
product and per capita income are not necessary to model is (X , X , X )
  
exist together as independent explanatory variables of Group II (X , X , X ): the subset of the group's
  
the same model. The same thing can be said about variables which appear most relevant and best specify the
population size and per capita income. Similarly, total model is (X , X , X )
  
expenditures, total consumption expenditures and gross Group III (X , X , X ): the subset of the group's
  
domestic product have strong relations among them. variables which appear most relevant and best specify the
Total consumption expenditures is the total expendi- model is (X , X )
 
tures excluding investments expenditures. Also, gross do- Group IV (X , X , X ): the subset of the group's
  
mestic product provides a detailed analysis of total variables which appear most relevant and best specify the
spending. Based on the above discussion, the model that model is (X , X )
 
represents the demand for international air travel may From the SPSS output, the least-squares lines of these
consist of a subset of one of the following groups of models for international air travel demand (here > stands
variables. for number of passengers in million) are as follows (the
S.Y. Abed et al. / Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148 147

estimated t-values are in parentheses): high variance in#ation factor (VIF). This means that they
are almost linear combinations of the other independent
>"!0.9451#0.014057X #0.029507X
  variables and indicate high variance of the regression
   
coe$cients. The correlation matrix shown in Table 1 also
#0.01297X , supports this evidence. However, multicollinearity may

  arise because there is a tendency of economic variables to
Adjusted R"0.981. (1) move together overtime.
>"!1.18!0.054941X #0.044478X
 
\   
6. Results
#0.03573X ,

  By looking into the results of regression analysis, it is
Adjusted R"0.949. (2) found that the population size has a positive e!ect on
international air travel demand * holding other things
>"!2.2566#0.021314X #0.39522X ,
  the same. As the population size goes up by one percent-
   
age point, on the average demand for international air
Adjusted R"0.959. (3) travel goes up by 0.021 million passengers. Likewise, if
>"!1.1431#0.016722X #0.035623X , the total expenditure goes up by one percentage point, on
  the average demand for international air travel goes up
   
by 0.395 million passengers, other things keeping the
Adjusted R"0.979. (4)
same.
If "0.05 or 5% level, the two-tailed critical t value is The two-tailed t-test can be used to test whether such
about 2.093 for 19 d.f. If  is "xed at 0.01 or 1% level, the a null hypothesis stands up against the (two-sided) alter-
critical t value for 19 d.f. is 2.861 (two-tailed). The output native hypothesis that true population coe$cient is dif-
indicates signi"cant linear relationship between the de- ferent from zero. The degrees of freedom are 19, which
pendent and independent variables in all the models are obtained by subtracting the number of parameters
since calculated t values exceed critical t values. Adjusted estimated, which are 3 in the present instance from
R indicate that, for all the models, most of the observa- n ("22). If  is set at 0.05, the two-tailed critical t value is
tions fall on the regression line. This means that a strong about 2.093 for 19 d.f. If  is "xed at 0.01 or 1% level, the
linear relationship exists between the dependent variable critical t value for 19 d.f. is 2.861 (two-tailed). Looking at
and independent variables. the t-values presented in Table 3, it is found that each
As shown in Table 2, F values are high for all the partial regression coe$cient is statistically signi"cantly
models and the observed signi"cance level is less than di!erent from zero at the 1% level of signi"cance.
0.00005 which also indicates that there is a signi"cant What about the overall signi"cance of the estimated
relationship between the dependent variable and the in- regression line? That is, the null hypothesis that all par-
dependent variables. The computed d values for interna- tial slopes are simultaneously equal to zero or, equiva-
tional air travel demand models are closer to 2, which lently, R"0, be accepted? This hypothesis was tested
implies that there is no autocorrelation. The tolerance of with the help of F-test. The F value has an F distribution
a variable is commonly used to measure collinearity. The
SPSS output shows high correlation exists between the Table 3
independent variables of the international air travel mod- Modeling international air travel demand in Saudi Arabia (Least-
els f (X , X , X ) and f (X , X , X ) and it is less in the squares coe$cients with standard errors and absolute t-values in paren-
     
model f (X , X ) while the model f (X , X ) does not theses)
   
su!er from multicollinearity. This is clear because most
Independent Variables International Air Travel
of the independent variables have small tolerance and Demand Model

X : population size in million 0.39522 0



Table 2 SE (0.041881)
F values and d values for international air travel demand models in t (9.437)
Saudi Arabia X : Total Expenditures in billion SR 0.021314

SE (0.001942)
Models F-value d-value t (10.975)
Constant !2.2566
f (X , X , X ) 372 2.01 Adj!R 0.959
  
f (X , X , X ) 132 1.48 F 244
  
f (X , X ) 244 2.02 DW 2.016
 
f (X , X ) 490 1.76 N 22
 
148 S.Y. Abed et al. / Journal of Air Transport Management 7 (2001) 143}148

with 2 and 19 d.f. If  is set at 0.05, the F table shows the airlines and civil aviation authorities can develop their
critical F value of 4.38. The corresponding value at corporate plan. Although there is no clear cut Saudi
"0.01 is 8.18. The computed F of 244 far exceeds either policy regarding air travel, the study would provide
of this critical F value. Therefore, the null hypothesis, i.e., a policy guideline in studying airports facilities.
all partial slopes are simultaneously equal to zero or,
alternatively, R"0, is rejected. Population size and
total expenditures, collectively and individually, in#u-
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